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☆ Bank of England scraps outdated inflation forecasting model in major overhaul after Fed boss' review
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-12 | by ( Karen Gilchrist | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON — The Bank of England on Friday announced a "once in a generation" overhaul of its inflation forecasting following a long-awaited review by former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke. The review — initiated following criticism of the central bank's recent policymaking — sets out 12 recommendations which BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said the bank was committed to implementing. They include the scrapping of the Bank's long-held "fan chart" forecasting system and the introduction of a revamped forecast framework. It added that the BoE currently relies more heavily than other central banks on a central forecast, which may not fully account for wider risks or how inflation expectations can become "de-anchored." Additionally, the review said the bank needed to improve its communication with the public, suggesting the it put less emphasis on the central forecast, simplify its policy statement, and reduce repetitiveness."

Persons: Ben Bernanke, —, BoE, Andrew Bailey, Bailey Organizations: Bank of England, City of, Federal, CNBC, Monetary, Bank Locations: City, City of London, United Kingdom, U.S

☆ Bernanke Review: How the former Fed boss could shake up the Bank of England
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Former Federal Reserve Board Chair Ben Bernanke speaks during a discussion on "Perspectives on Monetary Policy" during the Thomas Laubach Research Conference at the Federal Reserve Board building in Washington, DC, May 19, 2023. LONDON — The Bank of England will on Friday publish a long-awaited review by former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke that could lead to significant changes in its monetary policymaking. The review was launched last summer to assess the Bank's struggles to accurately project the huge global spike in inflation, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The first deals with how the Bank of England communicates uncertainty around its central forecasts. The "fan chart" is the Bank's long-held method of presenting the probability distribution that forms the basis of its inflation forecasts.

Persons: Ben Bernanke, BOE, Goldman Sachs, Bernanke, Goldman, Jari Stehn, James Moberly, Stehn Organizations: Federal Reserve, Thomas Laubach Research, Federal Reserve Board, LONDON, Bank of, Federal, MPC, Bank of England, Bank Locations: Washington , DC, Bank of England, Ukraine

☆ China's rapidly dwindling future will shape the world for decades to come
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-21 | by ( Linette Lopez | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +14 min

Everything was getting bigger — its cultural influence, geopolitical ambition, population — and seemed poised to continue until the world was remade in China's image. But now China's economy is withering, and the future Beijing imagined is being cut down to size along with it. What Beijing does — or fails to do — to fight this malaise will determine the course of humanity for decades to come. China's deflation worries started in earnest in the summer. Years of overbuilding — by about double the population, according to some estimates — and slowing population growth caused prices to collapse .

Persons: Minxin Pei, there's, Charlene Chu, Autonomous Research Charlene Chu, Chu, Wei Yao, Générale, I'm, Ben Bernanke, Bernanke, Xi Jinping, Xie Huanchi, Société Générale's Yao, Yao, It's, —, aren't, Logan Wright, Wright, Xi doesn't, Jinping, it's, Xi, Claremont's Pei, magnanimity Organizations: Claremont McKenna College, Autonomous Research, Federal Reserve, Getty Images Japan, Chinese Communist Party, Xi, CCP Locations: China, Beijing, dauphin, Xinhua, Japan, Xi's China, East Asia, Taiwan, Europe

☆ Some options trades for avoiding an asset bubble and other macroeconomic troubles
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-11 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

There are some trades for investors looking to avoid a possible asset bubble and other potholes that could be ahead. The standard 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose even further, a function of both the rising risk-free rate and the rising spread. Buying bonds has interest rate risk. Moreover, the spread between mortgage rates and Treasuries is unusually high. Risk-free rates stay static or even rise mildly, but if the spread narrows mortgage rates could fall, a tailwind for a mortgage portfolio.

Persons: There's, Murray Rothbard, Milton Friedman, Ben Bernanke, Bernanke's, Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell, Howard Marks, Charlie Munger, Berkshire Hathaway, Marks, Steve Eisman, Neuberger Berman, they've Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank, Vanguard Value, Technology, MBS Locations: U.S, deflate, Berkshire

☆ Central bank blunders undermine tough rate talk
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Comments by central bankers underline their desire to keep interest rates high until price growth quiesces. Policymakers’ recent mistakes mean they will struggle to convince investors their tough talk is real. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell says his fellow policymakers are “not thinking about rate cuts at all”. In May, after another U.S. regional bank failure, markets concluded that the Fed’s rate hike at the beginning of that month would be its last. Respected central bankers might be able to convince markets that these numbers don’t portend imminent rate cuts.

Persons: Jay Powell, Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, Powell, backtrack, –, Lagarde, Treasuries, BoE, Bailey, Ben Bernanke, Jacob Frenkel, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Traders, U.S . Federal, European Central Bank, Bank of England, titans, Deutsche Bank, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, LSEG, Silicon Valley Bank, Fed, ECB, Bank of Israel, Federal Reserve, European, Thomson Locations: Silicon, Bailey, United States, Ukraine, Central

☆ Bank of England should look more at money supply, lawmakers say
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A bus passes the Bank of England in the City of London, Britain, February 14, 2017. "Climate change is the most-cited example of the expansion of the remit," committee chair George Bridges, a Conservative former Brexit minister, told Reuters. The House of Lords committee set up the inquiry in March, following a surge in inflation to a 41-year high last year. The central bank is midway through its own forecasting review led by former U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke. The House of Lords committee said parliament should have more opportunity to debate these changes, and should conduct in-depth reviews of the BoE's work every five years.

Persons: Hannah McKay, BoE, Mervyn King, George Bridges, Ben Bernanke, Jeremy Hunt, Bridges, David Milliken, William Schomberg Organizations: Bank of England, City of, REUTERS, Economic Affairs Committee, Conservative, Reuters, U.S . Federal, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, Ukraine

☆ Cramer on 5 risks facing markets — and why it's not the 'most dangerous time'
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-22 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

It is, however, by all appearances not a great time to be long stocks. But before that could happen, the markets would fall in response to Iran's actions and the U.S. commitment to defend Israel. All three enemies — Iran, Russia and China — are, indeed, being challenged by the U.S. in some capacity. But is it really too much to argue that multiple compression is not on par with "the most dangerous" of times? As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

Persons: Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase, Ben Bernanke, Bernanke, I, Hamas, —, hasn't, bearish parry, Jingoism, Jerome Powell, Janet Yellen, infuses, Powell, We've, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Emily Elconin Organizations: JPMorgan, CBS, Israel, Fed, U.S ., Houston Astros, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, JPMorgan Chase &, Economic, of Detroit, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: Republic, Iran, Russia, China, Gaza, Israel, what's, U.S, East, Ukraine, Taiwan, Detroit , Michigan

☆ America’s Debt Crisis Burns While Congress Fiddles
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Tim Smart | ) www.usnews.com time to read: +9 min

Last month, the Penn Wharton Budget Model from the University of Pennsylvania came out with an analysis of the debt crisis entitled “When Does Federal Debt Reach Unsustainable Levels?”Their answer? The concern is that punting the problem into the future, continuing to raise debt even as interest rates rise further or hold at higher levels for longer, the debt will grow even faster in a “snowball” scenario. Similar proposals have been offered over the years but at the same time they seem to lack political support – indeed, Republicans have recently voiced the idea of cutting Social Security. The debt crisis is rapidly worsening at a time when the bond market is having its own set of problems. A recent government auction of debt, an occurrence that is becoming more common as the U.S. borrows more, saw weak demand.

Persons: Dick Cheney, Richard Neal, Democrats –, Blu Putnam, Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, Jerome Powell, ”, Gene Steuerle, Richard B, Fisher, probity, Kevin McCarthy, Kent Smetters, Boettner, Smetters, Richard Robis, Donald Trump Organizations: Capitol, Democratic, Massachusetts, The New York Times, Federal Reserve, Partisans, Democrats, Fed, CME Group, Social Security, Medicare, Urban Institute, California Rep, Penn Wharton Budget, University of Pennsylvania, University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, Wharton, Social, Republicans, Treasury, Hamas, BCA Research, White House Locations: U.S, United States, Washington, China, Japan, Israel

☆ Bank of England warns U.S. tech stock valuations may be out of whack
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

People walk outside the Bank of England in the City of London financial district, in London, Britain, January 26, 2023. Valuations for U.S technology stocks may be too high given the current macroeconomic backdrop and spike in rates, according to the Bank of England. "Given the impact of higher interest rates, and uncertainties associated with inflation and growth, some risky asset valuations appear to be stretched," the BoE's financial policy committee said Tuesday. "Stretched risky asset valuations increase the likelihood of a greater correction in prices if downside risks to growth materialise." To be sure, this isn't the first time that a central bank has warned of valuations over the years, but as a general rule, central bankers would rather not offer an opinion on any specific market price.

Persons: BoE, premia, Ben Bernanke, Lehman, Alan Greenspan, Greenspan's, — CNBC's Scott Schnipper Organizations: Bank of England, Microsoft, Nvidia, Lehman Brothers Locations: City, London, Britain, U.S

STOCKHOLM, Oct 9 (Reuters) - American economic historian Claudia Goldin won the 2023 Nobel economics prize for her work examining wage inequality between men and women, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences said on Monday. "This year's Laureate in the Economic Sciences, Claudia Goldin, provided the first comprehensive account of women's earnings and labour market participation through the centuries," the prize-giving body said in a statement. Goldin, who in 1990 became the first woman to be tenured at the Harvard economics department, is only the third woman to win the Nobel economics prize. "Claudia Goldin's discoveries have vast societal implications," said Randi Hjalmarsson, member of the Economic Prize committee. As with the other Nobel prizes, the vast majority of the economics awards have gone to men.

Persons: Claudia Goldin, Alfred Nobel, Goldin, Hans Ellegren, Claudia Goldin's, Randi Hjalmarsson, Jakob Svensson, Friedrich August von Hayek, Milton Friedman, Paul Krugman, Ben Bernanke, Elinor Ostrom, Esther Duflo, Simon Johnson, Mark John, Niklas Pollard, Johan Ahlander, Terje Solsvik, Catherine Evans Organizations: Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sveriges, Economic Sciences, Harvard, Pew Research, Commission, Social, Thomson Locations: STOCKHOLM, COVID, Norwegian, Iranian, United States, Europe, U.S

London CNN —Claudia Goldin, a professor at Harvard University, was awarded the Nobel Prize in economics Monday for her research into women’s income and employment. Jakob Svensson, chair of the committee for the prize in economic sciences, added: “Understanding women’s role in the labor market is important for society. Thanks to Claudia Goldin’s groundbreaking research we now know much more about the underlying factors and which barriers may need to be addressed in the future.”Claudia Goldin Harvard UniversityGoldin was born in 1946 in New York. She is the author of several books and is best-known for her work on the history of women in the US economy. The economics prize is officially known as the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel.

Persons: London CNN — Claudia Goldin, Goldin, ”, Jakob Svensson, Claudia Goldin’s, ” Claudia Goldin Harvard, ” Claudia Goldin Harvard University Goldin, Henry Lee, Alfred Nobel, Ben Bernanke, Douglas Diamond, Philip Dybvig Organizations: London CNN, Harvard University, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, ” Claudia Goldin Harvard University, National Bureau of Economic Research, Sveriges, Economic Sciences, Federal Locations: New York, United States, Swedish

☆ The Queen’s question returns with a vengeance
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Felix Martin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The world’s leading central banks had spent the previous two decades focusing on low inflation, neglecting risks to financial stability. Central bankers counter correctly that predictive accuracy is not the same as explanatory power. Yet it is far from clear how today’s independent central banks should respond to these overtly political struggles. In 2021, when the Phillips Curve was asleep at the wheel, the growth in the money supply was flashing red. The unfortunate truth is that there are many answers to the Queen’s question this time round – but no single magic solution.

Persons: Elizabeth, Prince Andrew , Duke, York, Prince Philip , Duke of Edinburgh, Tom Nicholson, Queen Elizabeth, Ben Bernanke, don’t, Phillips, Isabella Weber, Guido Lorenzoni, Andrew Bailey, monetarism, Milton Friedman, Anna Schwartz, Winston Churchill, Bernanke, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic, Thomas Shum 私, 「 Organizations: Westminster Abbey, REUTERS, Reuters, Bank of England, U.S . Federal, Phillips, University of Massachusetts Amherst, University of Chicago, MIT, United, 「 Reuters Locations: Westminster, London, Britain, British, Central, Ukraine, Paris, United States

☆ Bank of England Keeps Rates Steady for First Time in Nearly Two Years
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Eshe Nelson | More About Eshe Nelson | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

The central bank began its tightening cycle in December 2021, raising rates from near zero to levels last seen during the financial crisis of 2008. The central bank has said Ben Bernanke, the former U.S. Federal Reserve chair, will lead a review into the bank’s forecasting processes. But this week, some news landed in the central bank’s favor. Better still for the central bank, measures of domestic inflationary pressures also slowed. As inflation rates drop across much of the world and economies are weakening, in part because of the aggressive policy tightening by central banks, policymakers are trying to carefully calibrate the right level of interest rates.

Persons: Ben Bernanke Organizations: U.S . Federal

☆ How Wall Street makes money by predicting the Fed’s decisions
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

There, you will find a bar chart plotting the share of traders predicting a rate hike, cut or no change in interest rates at an upcoming meeting. Traders’ actions translate into interest rate decision probabilitiesWhen the Fed changes interest rates it’s actually changing what’s known as the federal funds rate target range. The federal funds rate is the interest rate banks charge each other to borrow money, and it impacts the interest rate consumers pay for a variety of loans, including some mortgages. But it wasn’t until 2013 that the CME Group launched the FedWatch tool, giving everyone access to the information without having to do complex calculations. Why the FedWatch Tool is so closely followedThe Fed’s interest rate decisions can have serious implications for your investments.

Persons: that’s, Jerome Powell, ” Powell, Agha Mirza, Mirza, ”, FedWatch, ” Mirza, Alex McGrath, Ben Bernanke, Ken Kuttner, Powell’s Jackson, Dow, Greg Daco, Daco, McGrath, ” McGrath Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, CME Group, CNN, Fed, Index, “ Investors, Williams College Locations: New York, EY

☆ Here's the inflation breakdown for August 2023, in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty ImagesInflation rose in August on the back of higher gasoline prices, according to the consumer price index. Gasoline was the largest contributor to inflation in August, accounting for more than half of the increase, according to the BLS. This pared-down measure — known as "core" CPI — fell to an annual rate of 4.3% in August from 4.7% in July. On a monthly basis, core inflation rose slightly, to 0.3% in August from 0.2% in July. The increase in monthly core CPI "is a little bump in the road," said Kayla Bruun, senior economist at Morning Consult.

Persons: Andrew Hunter, Hunter, Kayla Bruun, " Bruun, Greg McBride, Ben Bernanke, Olivier Blanchard, Scott Olson Organizations: Anadolu Agency, Getty, Capital Economics, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI, AAA, BLS, Transportation, U.S . Department, Morning, Bankrate, U.S . Federal Reserve, Peterson Institute for International Economics Locations: Virginia, U.S

What's more, recent history suggests that when funds go long dollars, they tend to stay long for a while. The latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data shows that funds cut their net short dollar position to $7.17 billion, the smallest bet against the dollar since mid-June and a third of what it was six weeks ago. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsA short position is essentially a wager an asset's price will fall, and a long position is a bet it will rise. That was followed by a year being net short dollars, nearly two years of being net long, before swinging back to being net long for over a year. CFTC data show that funds are still holding a substantial net short yen position worth around $8.2 bln.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Ben Bernanke, Jamie McGeever, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Futures Trading Commission, Fed, Reuters, Bank of, CFTC, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Rights ORLANDO , Florida, Japan, Bank of Japan, Germany

☆ What happens in Jackson Hole doesn’t stay in Jackson Hole
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN —Most of the year, people visit Jackson Hole, Wyoming, to ski, fly fish or simply enjoy the region’s vast natural beauty. Setting the stage: the economic backdropInflation has slowed significantly since last year’s Jackson Hole conference, alongside glimmers of a cooling labor market. A look back at past Jackson Hole conferencesLast year’s Jackson Hole conference was notable not just because it was the first time in two years that economists gathered in person. Months after Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech, he unveiled a whole new phase of bond-purchasing in what has now become known as QE2. A columnist for the Financial Times went so far as to say that Draghi “certainly stole the show this year [at Jackson Hole].”No matter what comes out of the conference this year, it’s clear that what happens in Jackson Hole doesn’t stay in Jackson Hole.

Persons: Jackson, Jerome Powell, He’ll, Michael Cahill, Goldman Sachs, Powell, —, Ben Bernanke, ”, Cahill, “, Bernanke’s Jackson, Bernanke, Janet Yellen, “ it’s, ” Cahill, Michael Woodford, John Williams, Williams, European Central Bank Mario Draghi Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Kansas City Fed, Jackson, Fed, Traders, Goldman, CNN, Columbia University, ” New York Fed, San Francisco Fed, European Central Bank, ECB, Financial Times Locations: New York, , Wyoming, Woodstock, Jackson

☆ What to expect from the Fed’s decision on rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks during an annual gathering of central bankers and economists in Wyoming next month could shed more light on what to expect for the September decision. There are three possibilities for what the Fed might do moving forward, according to economists: a second consecutive rate hike in September, one in November, or no more rate hikes after July. The Commerce Department releases the June reading of the Fed’s favorite inflation measure Friday. The Fed held rates steady for nine straight meetings over the span of a year the last time it paused a rate-hiking campaign in 2006. Nearly all of the Fed’s decisions have been unanimous since the central bank began lifting rates in March 2022, with the exception of two meetings early in the Fed’s current inflation battle.

Persons: it’s, Jerome Powell’s, It’s, haven’t, inflation’s, Ben Bernanke, Raphael Bostic, there’s, hawkish, “ Powell, ” Seema Shah, Powell, Christopher Waller, you’re, ”, José Torres, ” Powell, Jerome Powell Organizations: DC CNN, Federal, Fed, Commerce Department, Market Committee, Atlanta Fed, Asset Management, CNN, ”, The Labor Department, Interactive Locations: Washington, Wyoming, —

☆ What to expect from this week’s Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

After the Fed’s July monetary policy meeting, which concludes on Wednesday, investors will be looking for more details around that potential hike. That’s why the Fed is trying to retain the option of another rate increase in case inflation proves to be more resilient than expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks during an annual gathering of central bankers and economists in Wyoming next month could shed more light on what to expect for the September decision. There are three possibilities for what the Fed might do moving forward, according to economists: a second consecutive rate hike in September, one in November, or no more rate hikes after July. Whatever the Fed decides to do won’t come without a vigorous debate, and perhaps even a dissent, though the Fed has a tradition of collegiality.

Persons: —, it’s, Jerome Powell’s, It’s, haven’t, inflation’s, Ben Bernanke, Raphael Bostic, there’s, hawkish, “ Powell, ” Seema Shah, Powell, Christopher Waller, you’re, ”, José Torres, ” Powell, Jerome Powell Organizations: DC CNN, Federal, Fed, Commerce Department, Market Committee, Atlanta Fed, Asset Management, CNN, ”, The Labor Department, Interactive Locations: Washington, Wyoming, —

☆ The Fed has paused before. Here’s what happened next
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

The Fed had a similar predicament in 2006After raising interest rates 17 consecutive times between June 2004 and June 2006, Fed officials became concerned that they could inadvertently damage the economy if they continued to hike rates. When the Fed met again in September, many officials expressed concerns that raising interest rates after a short, six-week pause would broadcast the wrong message. Lacker continued to be the sole Fed official who favored raising interest rates until his term expired at the end of the year. “It’s pretty easy to believe that the Fed will find that it didn’t raise rates enough and so choose to raise rates somewhat further before stopping and, later on, reducing rates,” he said. Fed officials then opted for a pause in the fall of 1994 and raised rates further in the winter.

Persons: Ben Bernanke, Bernanke, “, ” Michael Moskow, ”, Cathy Minehan, Jeffrey Lacker, Lacker, Jerome Powell, Liu Jie, Athanasios Orphanides, Austan Goolsbee, William English Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Traders, Fed, Committee, Washington , D.C, Bloomberg, Getty, Chicago Fed, Boston Fed, Richmond Fed, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, European Central Bank, Food Forum, Yale University Locations: New York, Washington ,, Xinhua, Chicago

☆ Americans' wages are finally outpacing inflation. But could it last?
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-16 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

For more than two years, persistent and pervasive inflation has taken big bites out of Americans’ paychecks. Annual real weekly wages were up 0.6% last month, a rate that’s a tick below the 0.7% gain seen in February 2020. June also marked the second consecutive month of year-over-year real hourly wage growth — the first back-to-back months of gains since early 2021. Fears of a dreaded “wage-price spiral” — when rising wages and prices feed into each other — have made a bogeyman out of wage growth. And finally, supply-side inflation has drastically cooled to the point where annual inflation is practically flat — which, ideally, gives firms more wiggle room to pay workers, she said.

Persons: hasn’t, ’, That’s, ”, William Ferguson, Gertrude B, Austin, it’s, Alex Pelle, “, Sung Won Sohn, Ben Bernanke, ” Pelle, Julia Pollak, they’ve Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Grinnell College, stoke, Mizuho Securities, Loyola Marymount University, SS, San Francisco Fed, BLS Locations: Minneapolis, Iowa

☆ Cramer: The Cassandras are wrong about the market (again) — here's why I'm upbeat
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-16 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +14 min

The impossibility of any company doing anything right, or as right as the market seems to judge, serves as the only homily worth offering. You simply don't land at all. Of course, the biggest worry to this market is its two-tiered nature: The mega-cap techs versus all the rest. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.

Persons: Warren Buffett, It's, Jerome Powell's, Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, Powell, deride Powell, —, it's, Wells, Vin Diesel, he'll, Goldman Sachs, Amy Hood, Tim Cook's, Mark Zuckerberg's pickleball, Clive Cussler, Stephen King, Lina Khan's, Jonathan Kanter, Khan, Morgan, let's, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Victor J Organizations: Apple, Wells, JPMorgan, PepsiCo, Treasury, Bank of America, Microsoft, Activision Blizzard, Nvidia, Intel, Devices, Colgate, Federal Trade, Activision, Justice Department, sycophantic, Fed, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Visitors, New York Stock Exchange, Blue, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: People's Republic of China, China, Wells Fargo, America, New York

☆ The Fed's obsession with 2% inflation could cost Americans their jobs
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Some economists think the central bank could wreck the job market if it sticks to that target. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. Some economists fear that to lop a final percentage point off the inflation rate, the Fed will end up wrecking the jobs market. In 2023, that's not yet happened – with jobs numbers rising over the past six months and unemployment holding steady at under 4%, even though inflation has rapidly cooled. If Americans start losing their jobs, expect a lot more questioning of the hallowed 2% target.

Persons: Ben Bernanke's, it's, that's, BlackRock, Rick Rieder, Bloomberg's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Here's the inflation breakdown for June, in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The CPI is a key barometer of inflation, measuring prices of anything from fruits and vegetables to haircuts and concert tickets. Hourly earnings increased 0.2%, on average, from May to June after accounting for inflation, according to BLS data. 'Encouraging' inflation signals moving forwardThe inflation slowdown has been broad-based, Zandi said. watch nowGrocery price inflation is also down significantly from its peak around 14% last summer, which had been the highest rate since 1979. Economists say it's a near certainty that housing prices will continue to fall through the second half of the year.

Persons: Michael M, Mark Zandi, Zandi, we're, Mark Hamrick, Andrew Hunter, Ben Bernanke, Olivier Blanchard, Stephanie Roth, Roth Organizations: Lincoln Market, Santiago, Getty, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's, BLS, Capital Economics, Finance, U.S . Federal Reserve, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Morgan Private Bank Locations: Brooklyn , New York, U.S, Ukraine

☆ The Fed is secretly stress testing the US economy against nightmare scenarios
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

When asked how the Fed plans for the worst case scenarios on the geopolitical front, he first responded in Fedspeak. At every Fed policy meeting, he said, “our staff works up six or seven or eight alternative simulations,” he said. The market impact: The policy scenarios considered by the Fed are quite sensitive. That’s likely why when Powell was asked about the scenarios the Fed had most recently considered, he stayed mum. They’re posting elaborate TikToks where they pretend that the McDonald’s Grimace shake has killed them, of course.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell didn’t, ”, they’re, Joe Brusuelas, Stacey Tevlin, Ben Bernanke, Philippa Dunne, “, Danielle DiMartino Booth, That’s, Powell, “ I’m, Joe Biden, Biden, “ Bidenomics, Elisabeth Buchwald, Bryan Mena, Read, McDonald’s, Scottie Andrew, Grimace’s, Ronald McDonald, Andrews, it’s, Matthew Prince, “ It’s Organizations: New, New York CNN — Federal, European Central Bank, Federal, RSM, “, Fed, Bloomberg, TLR, QI Research, Federal Reserve, Chapman University, CNN Locations: New York, Portugal, Fedspeak, China, Chicago, America, California, ”

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